Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 7.049544 7.812032 8.662262 9.688548 10.904561 12.313250 14.089269
2024-10-06 6.045558 7.097376 8.379082 10.090208 12.370662 15.393461 19.869109
2024-10-13 5.174667 6.275337 7.686954 9.690171 12.569173 16.755331 23.745580
2024-10-20 4.563887 5.662621 7.124286 9.294291 12.599272 17.777589 27.370623
2024-10-27 4.147571 5.243574 6.746633 9.065616 12.782455 19.019163 31.803095
2024-11-03 3.852904 4.952659 6.502476 8.979267 13.144483 20.618605 37.639303
2024-11-10 3.773748 4.950504 6.665616 9.531568 14.663942 24.759610 51.616291
2024-11-17 3.619860 4.822018 6.619752 9.730296 15.590695 28.051715 66.322252
2024-11-24 3.399210 4.574356 6.362126 9.529604 15.712144 29.620537 77.400494
2024-12-01 3.234199 4.397472 6.198525 9.468950 16.096118 31.954340 94.098526
2024-12-08 3.054658 4.185209 5.958620 9.239081 16.080687 33.273371 108.630224
2024-12-15 2.921083 4.035619 5.809086 9.157637 16.371366 35.558995 132.273903
2024-12-22 2.821291 3.943463 5.765485 9.308291 17.311814 40.528463 188.942113
2024-12-29 2.758321 3.907924 5.819069 9.667613 18.884221 48.808879 324.921967
2025-01-05 2.590054 3.688330 5.530618 9.290989 18.506405 49.853655 395.259583
2025-01-12 2.437926 3.486616 5.259080 8.918644 18.066238 50.484711 474.956796
2025-01-19 2.321453 3.337733 5.071641 8.703378 18.012193 52.811996 639.899604
2025-01-26 2.233020 3.230937 4.952733 8.622053 18.320749 57.116730 1017.401485
2025-02-02 2.228582 3.265961 5.097196 9.141845 20.553698 73.747956 5244.778020
2025-02-09 2.182263 3.225494 5.095612 9.328662 21.836590 87.367677 127815.617763
2025-02-16 2.096357 3.111058 4.943377 9.139998 21.823952 92.400222 NaN
2025-02-23 2.030883 3.029509 4.849814 9.082957 22.263209 101.896029 NaN
2025-03-02 1.952726 2.921818 4.698133 8.866683 22.080980 106.154974 NaN